(Article from Journal 2022/01 Vol140 Pt1)

A very Happy New Year to all PWI members! The omicron variant certainly took the shine off the UK’s hopes of a near-normal festive season, but it seems the worst may be behind us.

Whilst expert predictions vary, after spectacular medical developments over the last 18 months society is slowly working out how to live with the virus. 2022 holds the prospect of a more normal social and working life, and the expansion of PWI activity!

So, to lift New Year spirits I thought I’d look at some of the more positive opportunities (and the challenges) facing our industry over the next 12 months – and longer.

Much has happened that will impact the railway industry since the publication of our October Journal, and there are good reasons to be optimistic about what this year holds for our Institution, our industry, and engineering more generally.

MORE AND BETTER RAILWAY – BUT WITH CONDITIONS…

During 2021 government policy for the rail industry became clearer. Publication of the Williams-Shapps Plan for Rail1 in May, and Decarbonising Transport2 and the Rail Environment Policy Statement3 in July was followed by the Integrated Rail Plan for the North and Midlands4 (IRP) and Union Connectivity Review5 in November, and the launch of work on the Whole Industry Strategic Plan6 (WISP) in December.
Some of the proposals in these documents are controversial but their overall tone and impact are undoubtedly positive.

Construction work is in full swing on HS2, East-West Rail, South Wales Valley Lines electrification and tram-train adaptation, and further electrification in Scotland. Electrification work in England has at last restarted with overhead wires from Kettering to Market Harborough due for completion by the end of 2023. And PWI members are actively involved in all of this!

Importantly for the network as a whole, the IRP sets out a series of physical schemes to improve the quality and interconnectedness of the English railway network in the North and Midlands. Immediate reaction to the document was dominated by criticism of the government’s decision not to build a significant proportion of the eastern (Leeds) leg of HS2.

Whilst such a reaction could have been anticipated, it distracted from much in the IRP that is positive and should be welcomed by the industry. The document, available free online, is well worth a read and shows that government is listening to the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC), which provides impartial, expert advice on the major long term infrastructure challenges facing the UK.

Under the IPR the city centre stations at Nottingham, Derby, and Sheffield will continue to see direct high speed train services: facilities not included in some earlier proposals for HS2.
The IPR proposes more significant investment in electrification for England: though still short of the “whole network electrification” policy adopted in India! “West Yorkshire Mass Transit” and more schemes under the “restore your railway” banner are also indicated. Doubtless these will provide material for many future Journal articles.

As with all government policy, the true test of commitment will be the authorisation of expenditure on individual schemes. Here it is abundantly clear that ongoing major investment remains dependent on a relentless industry focus on cost reduction, including lean programme and project management, themes the PWI will be returning to in 2022.

GREAT BRITISH RAILWAY (GBR)

Other than navigating the constraints, uncertainty, and financial damage resulting from covid, the greatest short term challenge facing our industry is designing and implementing the reintegration necessary to deliver the industry structure, ethos, culture, and mode of operation envisaged by the Williams-Shapps Plan for Rail. In December, the GBR Transition Team (GBRTT) issued an invitation to industry stakeholders, inviting them to share views and provide evidence so that, collectively, the opportunity presented by GBR is used to build a coherent and sustainable railway organisation.

The PWI Board decided that, as the Professional Engineering Institution for railway infrastructure engineers, the Institution should respond to this invitation.

Our Fellows are well placed to inform the response and a group of them are working to complete it by the 4 February deadline. The Institution is looking at what other practical support it can provide to facilitate the reintegration of our national railway system under GBR, and members will be regularly updated on this important strand of work.

COP 26 AND “MODAL SHIFT”

COP26 in late November publicly reemphasised the criticality of decarbonisation to the protection of the earth’s climate and environment. Whilst the level of international political commitment was perhaps not what had been hoped for, there is now clear scientific and political consensus around the scale of the challenge facing the human race, if not around the detail of how that challenge is to be met.

The PWI has embraced this challenge through its Climate Change Adaptation and Decarbonisation Committee (CCA&DCC update see page 8) and has now formally joined the National Engineering Policy Centre’s (NEPC) Net Zero project. I’ve no doubt that our representatives, Deputy President Peter Dearman and CCA&DCC member Jenny Smith will ensure that the perspectives and potential of railway transport are properly reflected in the NEPC work on society’s path to net zero carbon.

Continuing the decarbonisation theme, “modal transfer” is very much a phrase of the moment. This sums up the idea that we can grow rail traffic and reduce CO2 emissions by transferring passengers and freight off roads, out of the air, and onto rails. But how is such transfer to be achieved? A discussion at the UK’s Technical Leadership Group plenary late last October and the media coverage given to railways during COP26 suggests that our industry needs to think very carefully about exactly what freight and passengers it should be moving in the future, and what that means for the way we evaluate, develop, and finance the UK railway network.

It’s interesting to look at Switzerland where, in 2019 passenger rail travel accounted for 17% of modal share by passenger-km compared to just over 8% in the UK. Rail freight accounted for 8% of internal UK traffic in 2020: Switzerland has managed transport so that 37% of freight tonne km were carried by rail, rising to over 70% for trans-alpine freight. New and upgraded lines and “base tunnels” under the alps carry that traffic. Whilst geography may have some influence on these numbers, transport policy, the consequent nature of the transport system in place, and land use planning are critical factors.

These outcomes are not an accident of economics: for the last 40 years or so, the focus of Swiss transport planners (and politicians) has been to develop the country’s rail system as the core of a comprehensive network of public transport journey opportunities, not just city-centre to city-centre but encompassing towns and villages – and the Swiss system is still developing.

As we think more carefully about the true cost of carbon and of the enduring technological constraints associated with different transport modes, perhaps in industry economic evaluation we might see more analytical focus on modal shift and the creation of integrated journey opportunities, in addition to short term revenue effects?I certainly hope so – but in the shorter term industry cost control – and safety – are paramount…

REFERENCES:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/994603/gbr-williams-shapps-plan-for-rail.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1009448/decarbonising-transport-a-better-greener-britain.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1002166/rail-environment-policy-statement.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1038561/integrated-rail-plan-for-the-north-and-midlands-web-version.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036027/union-connectivity-review-final-report.pdf
https://gbrtt.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/WISP-Call-for-Evidence-Document-English.pdf

Photo by Patrick Federi on Unsplash